A Comparison of Level and Percentage Bets when playing online cash games-Fun88
Online cash games at Fun88
What are level and percentage bets you can do when visiting online cash games at Fun88?
With a level betting strategy, all bets you can apply at Fun88are the same size, regardless of your online betting odds when playing online cash games at Fun88. Some bettors at Fun88 consider level betting to be very inflexible, as it does not consider the probability of winning your bet, or rather, the risk of losing it when playing at Fun88 or any other casino online when playing real money games
For example, why would one want to risk the same amount of capital on something that has a half, a quarter or an eighth chance of something else happening at Fun88 or any other casino? Doesn't it make more sense to scale the stakes to be proportional to the risk associated with the bet at Fun88 betting apps in india?
While, in the short term, this argument pays off, in the long term, perhaps not so much. Placing bets at Fun88with lower odds means being more at the mercy of statistical variations or luck, both good and bad. More good luck can mean more winnings at Fun88.
Unfortunately, this also means that more bad luck means more losses.
Percentage bets when playing online cash games at Fun88
In proportional or percentage betting, bets are calculated as a proportion of your current bankroll; thus, they will increase as your bankroll grows after winning and decrease after losing. Those who prefer a specific percentage betting plan, argue that it is the most efficient way to grow their funds, although it is only achieved through an aggressive approach to risk management.
Generally, its appeal lies in allowing a winning bettor to grow his bankroll more quickly than by placing level bets at Fun88 or another casino game
It is also worth remembering that, at least in theory, you cannot bet on losing everything on percentage bets, since, even if you have lost all your bets, you are never putting all your remaining bankroll at stake, only a proportion.
However, the combination of winning and losing in sequence yields interesting observations when comparing the performance of your money management strategy with level betting, as we shall see.
Distribution of winnings for level versus percentage bets when playing online cash games at Fun88
Consider a history of 1000 bets with odds of 2.00, where the bettor has 5% expected value (EV), which is the expected return of $105 for every $100 wagered.
The following bar chart shows the distribution of returns for both level bets (5 units) and percentage bets (5%) from a simulation run 10,000 times.
In the case of level bets, the distribution of possible winnings follows the typical bell-shaped normal distribution curve that can be expected. The average (and mean) profit are 250 units, which is what can be expected after betting 5000 units with a 5% edge.
For percentage bets at Fun88, the way the distribution is made is noticeably different and very skewed in favor of the higher return end. This is probably not a surprise, as a lucky moment can raise bankrolls and stakes exponentially.
You can see that there is more underperformance with percentage bets than with level bets. In this simulation, about 21% were considered unprofitable, compared to only about 5% for level bets.
Distribution of winnings for level bets versus percentage bets when playing at Fun88
Instead of comparing winnings, let us now compare the percentage profitability of the two betting plans. Obviously, in the case of a very profitable history of percentage bets, the total betting volume will be much higher.
For example, a winning percentage betting profit amounted to 2462 units (compared to 440 for the level bet), but to achieve this, 33,699 units had to be wagered (compared to 5000 units for the level bet). In fact, in this example, the win to stake or profitability was lower for percentage bets (6.85%) than for level bets (8.80%). Is this typical?
The average profit for level bets was 5.00%. Compare this to the average for percentage bets at Fun88 or any other casino, which was half that, at 2.51%.
We can change the simulation parameters; for example, different betting odds and different expected values (EV) by the bettor.
It was chosen 40 different EV/odds pairs. To further limit the number of possible parameter combinations, you can consider the size of percentage bets equivalent to that indicated in the complete Kelly betting strategy, calculated for EV/Likelihoods -1, where EV is expressed as a percentage.
For example, for the situation already discussed (EV = 5%, Odds = 2.00), the Kelly percentage is 5% / 2.00 - 1 = 5%. The percentage bets for the 40 combinations are shown below. For the level betting situations, the magnitude of the percentage was used. Thus, for the combination EV = 3%, Odds = 3.00, which implies bet size of 1.5%, level bets of 1.5 units were used.
Percentage bets sizes in online cash games at Fun88
The next two tables compare the average winnings yielded by simulations. In the case of the leveled bets, the winnings are in sync with what was expected, a random figure that, you might reduce it further, would have overtaxed my limited computing resources.
In contrast, the winnings from percentage bets are generally about half these values. This was really an unexpected and perhaps not intuitive finding, but the following discussion will reveal why it occurs.
Probability of non-profitability of online cash games at Fun88
Even those who bet heavily and have a profitable expected value face a greater than zero probability of not generating a profit during a specified betting history. Of course, the law of large numbers indicates that the probability decreases as betting history increases.
Nevertheless, it is worth considering the probabilities of these simulated 1000-bet histories, for reasons of comparing level bets with percentage bets.
The last two tables show the probability of each EV/Probability combination failing to generate a profit based on the 10,000 simulated bets.
Again, relative to the average winnings, there will be some residual random numbers, but the broader pattern is clear: there will always be a greater chance of not making a profit placing percentage bets than placing level bets, no matter what odds you bet at or EV you own, and sometimes the magnitude of the difference is considerable.
The probability of not making a profit after 1000 percentage bets when playing online cash games at Fun88.
As an example, a reasonably accurate forecaster (with odds of about 2.00) with a 3% edge over the bookmaker can expect losses after 1000 bets of 3 units of 1 in 6 times. On the other hand, if they choose to place 3% bets, this would rise to 1 in 3.
Explanation: the asymmetry of losses and profits in percentage bets at Fun88
Why do percentage bets appear to be inferior to level bets, at least in terms of expected winnings and the ability to generate a profit? The simple explanation is that it takes a higher percentage growth to recoup a previous loss.
Consider the example of level odds bets. Losing a 5% bet represents a decrease from 100 to 95 units in your bankroll.
To recover this, a gain of 5/95 or 5.26% is needed, but the percentage betting strategy will only realize a next bet of 4.75 units and winning with odds of 2.00 would generate a 99.75 return to the fund. In contrast, the level betting fund would return 100 units.
The problem is the same in reverse. By losing a level-odds bet after winning the same way, you will lose more absolute equity than you won previously. In this example, regardless of whether you lose or win first, your bankroll will end up at 99.75, which is less than what you started with, despite theoretically having an expected value of 0% for this betting pair.
Generally, and regardless of the betting odds, when you lose, it takes longer to recover; on the other hand, when you win, it will take less time to recover.
Of course, in purely monetary terms, a bettor who has an expected value with proven profitability will absolutely generate more profit than his equivalent with level bets. After all, that is the purpose of placing percentage bets at Fun88.
Nevertheless, this exercise has been a useful reminder that, when betting, there is always a trade-off between risk and reward.
In exchange for a more aggressive acceleration of winnings, which is what percentage bets offer, one must accept a higher probability of having much worse outcomes than expected (and possibly losing money), simply because of the asymmetric nature of the distribution of possible outcomes if you are playing at online cash games at Fun88 or any other casino.
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